Prioritization Formula
Every team argues about what to build first, and the loudest argument usually wins. This playbook replaces the argument with a number you can check: value over effort, discounted by confidence, with the arithmetic visible in every row. Because the inputs are the same everywhere, it compares work across teams that share no roadmap. Run it here, then install it where the backlog actually lives.
A prioritization meeting without a shared formula is a seniority contest. Everyone brings a list, everyone believes their list, and the ranking that survives belongs to whoever argued last or reports highest. The output looks like a decision and behaves like a preference, which is why it gets relitigated the following month.
The formula is small on purpose. Score what customers actually said or did, score alignment against objectives you have named out loud, divide by effort in relative points, and multiply by confidence. Show the arithmetic in the table. The number is not the answer, it is the thing the room can now disagree with precisely: not whether the referral program feels important, but whether its customer-need score of 3 survives contact with what customers actually said.
A score whose derivation the reader cannot check is an assertion wearing a number.
THE SCALE, stated in one line in the artifact and nowhere else
CN 0-3 0 no signal, 1 implied by behavior, 2 stated,
3 stated repeatedly or blocking use today
BO -3 to 3 one column per NAMED objective; 0 is neither
serves nor harms
E 1-3 relative points: small, typical, large against
THIS backlog's rows
C percentage applied last, as a multiplier
EFFORT IS RELATIVE, and that is not a rounding convenience.
If the team already has hour estimates, bucket them 1 to 3
against each other. Hours in the denominator make the score's
size depend on the unit, and cross-team comparison dies.
CONFIDENCE IS CUT BY DEPENDENCIES. A result depending on more
than two teams rarely deserves more than 50 percent. Ask what
single event would halve it.A LABELED ASSUMPTION, in the row where the value sits
| Court bag | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.00 | 85% | 3.40 |
E assumed at 1, no scoping supplied, Effort estimate needed
WHAT A LABEL MAY AND MAY NOT SAY
may: C assumed at 60 percent, no conversion data on the
current signup
not: C translated from the high descriptor
(when no descriptor was ever supplied)
A NEGATIVE OBJECTIVE SCORE IS A REAL SCORE
| Logo ball line | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 2.00 | 40% | 0.80 |
BO2 negative, works against the premium-brand objective
Where nobody is named, the field carries Scorer needed rather
than a plausible name from the room. A guessed owner is worse
than a blank one, because it looks resolved.THE FORMULA, and the derivation written out once ((CN + BO) / E) x C = Priority Initiative A: CN 2, BO1 1, BO2 1, E 2, C 75% Raw = (2 + 1 + 1) / 2 = 2.00 Priority = 2.00 x 0.75 = 1.50 FOUR ROWS, ranked, with the awkward cases kept | A. Paddle covers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.00 | 75% | 1.50 | | B. Grip tape | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.00 | 90% | 0.90 | | C. Logo ball line | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 2.00 | 40% | 0.80 | | D. Court bag | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.00 | 85% | 3.40 | Ranking: D 3.40, A 1.50, B 0.90, C 0.80 D leads on an effort nobody scoped. That is not a reason to drop the row. It is the reason the next step exists.
THE FLAG NAMES WHAT THE RANK RESTS ON
D scores highest on an assumed effort with high confidence.
Ask who scoped it before acting on the rank.
THE FOUR QUESTIONS, asked in order of a flagged row
1. What did customers say or do that sets CN? Name the source.
2. Which objective does each BO serve, and would that
objective's owner agree with the number?
3. Who scoped E, and against what comparison row?
4. What single event would cut C in half?
WHERE THIS STOPS. Turning the winner into quarters, milestones,
and owners is a different artifact. The reply delivers the
backlog and names the destination by slug,
how-to-plan-new-product-and-services, because a paraphrase reads
like a handoff without being one.prioritization-formula/
├── SKILL.md ← the two modes + the delivery boundary
├── meta.yaml ← version, sources, test prompts, changelog
├── LICENSE.md ← MIT
├── assets/
│ ├── backlog-template.md ← the scored table + a filled example
│ └── sniff-test-checklist.md ← the patterns and the readout format
└── references/
└── scoring-scales.md ← what each point means, and why"Use the prioritization-formula skill to stack rank this backlog."